Paradise Valley real estate recorded a strong third quarter, with 51 sales, up 34% from the prior year. Summer sales dropped 16.4% from the spring (Q2), but that's an expected seasonal change. The median sold price rose slightly to $4.7 million when compared to both prior periods.
Despite the slower summer months, active listings increased from Q2 to Q3 (92 to 104). This could partly be explained by an uptick in September, as homeowners put their homes back on the market. As a result, months of supply increased from 4.5 to 6.1, still balanced overall.
Paradise Valley Luxury Real Estate Market Metrics — Q3 2026
Market metric | Q3 2026 | Q2 2026 | Q3 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
Closed sales | 51 | 61 | 38 |
Total sales volume | $349,460,555 | $358,930,580 | $204,127,934 |
Average sold price | $6,852,167 | $5,884,107 | $5,371,787 |
Median sold price | $4,700,000 | $4,500,000 | $4,450,000 |
Median sold-to-original-list ratio | 91.67% | 92.47% | 91.18% |
Active listings | 104 | 92 | N/A |
Months of supply | 6.1 | 4.5 | N/A |
Source: Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service. N/A indicates unavailable data. This report captures single family homes in the Town of Paradise Valley. It excludes homes in the zip code of 85253 that are actually in the cities of Scottsdale or Phoenix. It only includes homes with lots more than .7 acres to exclude smaller subdivisions, resort, condominium, and townhome communities. Months of supply is calculated using active listings recorded at the reporting-period snapshot divided by average monthly closed sales during the quarter.
Two Different Markets
The headline numbers don't explain the underlying dynamics that actually move Paradise Valley's real estate. Closer examination reveals there are two sub-markets that behave very differently: homes priced below $8 million and those $8 million and above.
Year-Over-Year Trends
Below $8 million, the number of sales increased gradually, from 32 to 38 year over year (Q3 25 to Q3 26).
At the same time, the number of $8M+ sales more than doubled, from 6 to 13. This shows that higher-priced homes are becoming a larger proportion of the total mix, from 16% to 26% between the two quarters. This helped drive the total sales volume during those two periods, from $204 million to almost $350 million, as the table shows.
Q2-to-Q3 Trends
The differences between the two micromarkets are even more striking when comparing the third quarter to the second quarter. Below $8M, the number of sales fell 21% while inventory remained stable.
Above $8M, sales held steady while inventory rose 36%. Most of the inventory increase came from homes built after 2018, especially 2026 construction. This influx is a trend that bears watching over the next several months.
What It Means for Buyers and Sellers
The Paradise Valley market is undergoing a shift. For buyers, this means that there are more new homes available in the $8M+ market. The homes below that price point are more likely to be older homes. Some have been renovated, while others haven't. This means buyers must decide whether they want to live in a recently renovated home, renovate it themselves, or look for homes in Scottsdale or Arcadia.
Sellers are competing with more new construction. Buyers are attracted to these homes’ contemporary floor plans, abundant natural light, and convenient indoor-outdoor living. Even homes below $8M may need to compete through price or other advantages, such as location, views, privacy, and lot size.
